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Nikki Haley overtakes Ron DeSantis; Donald Trump leads big
© Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.
Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis in Iowa just days before a high-stakes Republican caucus that could help determine whether either candidate has a viable shot at upending Donald Trump, the race’s far-and-away front-runner.
But even as Haley has moved into second place, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll indicates her support may be based on “shaky ground,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll.
The Iowa Poll shows 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers pick Trump as their first choice for president — a slight dip from the 51% who said the same in December.
Haley, who has shown more upward momentum since the start of the caucus cycle than any other candidate, now sits in second place at 20%. It is her best showing in the Iowa Poll, and an increase of 4 percentage points since December.
DeSantis has fallen 3 percentage points to slip to third place at 16%.
Although DeSantis entered the race last year looking like the candidate best positioned to take on Trump in Iowa, the Florida governor has stagnated in the polls, failing to gain any ground over his first Iowa Poll showing in August, when he earned 19%.
Selzer, who is president of the nationally recognized firm Selzer & Co., said Saturday’s results bring to mind those of the final Iowa Poll before the 2016 Republican caucus.
That year, Trump stood atop the poll, but Cruz looked far stronger in the underlying data. Cruz went on to defeat Trump, but Trump defeated him for the Republican nomination.
“The deep data on (Haley) suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night,” Selzer said.
The poll shows troubling signs around likely caucusgoers’ enthusiasm for Haley, which could become particularly important as Iowa faces what is expected to be a historically cold caucus night following a blizzard that dumped a foot of snow across much of the state.
While Haley has surpassed DeSantis, Selzer said, “most of the rest of the data here is not good news.”
No other candidate breaks into double digits.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is in fourth place at 8%, up from 5% in December.
Texas pastor Ryan Binkley and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson are at 1%.
The poll of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
It comes as Iowans are solidifying their caucus picks. Overall, 68% say their minds are made up, while 25% say they could still be persuaded. Another 7% say they do not have a first-choice candidate.
More Trump supporters are locked in, with 82% saying their minds are made up. It’s 64% for DeSantis supporters and 63% for Haley supporters.
This cycle has seen most Iowa Republican caucusgoers decide on a candidate and stick with their choice even as the field has shifted and narrowed.
Two in three, or 65%, say they have always supported their current first-choice candidate, while 27% say they’ve previously supported someone else.
Among Trump supporters, 87% say they have always supported him. For DeSantis, it’s 67%. But it’s just 46% among Haley supporters.
Lack of enthusiasm among Nikki Haley supporters is ‘on the edge of jaw-dropping’
Although Haley has pulled ahead of DeSantis, the poll shows clear dangers lurk for her going into a caucus night that could be decided by Iowans’ willingness to brave the snow and cold.
Overall, 32% of likely Republican caucusgoers say they are “extremely” enthusiastic about caucusing for their first-choice candidate. Another 34% are “very enthusiastic.” But 22% are only “mildly” enthusiastic and 4% are “not that enthusiastic.” Seven percent did not name a first-choice candidate.
Trump has the greatest share of enthusiastic supporters, with 49% saying they are extremely enthusiastic and 39% who are very enthusiastic. Just 11% say they are only mildly enthusiastic and zero percent they are not that enthusiastic.
For DeSantis, 23% say they are extremely enthusiastic to caucus for him — up from 16% in December.
But a majority of those who plan to caucus for Haley say they are only mildly enthusiastic (49%, up from 39% in December) or not that enthusiastic (12%, up from 2% in December). She is the only candidate to see a substantial rise in the proportion of her supporters saying they are only mildly or not that enthusiastic.
Just 9% say they are extremely enthusiastic to caucus for Haley. Another 30% say they are very enthusiastic about caucusing for her.
“Her enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping,” Selzer said. “That 61% are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up.”
At the same time, Haley’s favorability ratings have also fallen to the point where they’re barely above water.
Now, Haley is viewed favorably by 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers, down from 59% in December. And she is viewed unfavorably by 46%, up from 31%. Another 6% don’t know enough about her to say.
The change comes as Haley has become the focus of attacks from both DeSantis and Trump in the final weeks of the campaign and as millions of dollars of negative TV ads have flooded Iowa’s airwaves.
DeSantis’ favorable numbers have also dropped, to 58% from 66% in December. And his unfavorable numbers climbed from 29% to 36%. Another 6% don’t know enough to say.
Ramaswamy is viewed favorably by 52%, up from 46%. And he is viewed unfavorably by 36%, matching the 36% who said the same in December. Another 13% are not sure.
Trump continues to have the best favorability ratings among the GOP candidates with 69% viewing him favorably and 29% viewing him unfavorably. That’s similar to December, when 72% viewed him favorably and 28% viewed him unfavorably.
Which caucusgoers are most likely to attend, despite sub-zero wind chills?
On a night when turnout and enthusiasm matters, the Iowa Poll shows one bright spot for DeSantis, whose supporters are more likely to say they will definitely attend the caucus.
Overall, 55% of poll respondents say they will definitely, rather than probably, attend the caucuses on Monday.
Among DeSantis supporters, 62% say they will definitely attend. Among Trump supporters, it is 56%, and 51% of Haley supporters.
Paul Rottinghaus, a 71-year-old Charles City resident and poll respondent, said he definitely plans to caucus for DeSantis.
“I like all four of them, but Ron, to me, has the best chance of winning,” he said. “I like what he has to say. I like what he’s done in Florida. I like his right-to-life stance. I like the fact that he’s willing to stand up and make a statement and move forward to get people involved to reach a resolution.”
Rottinghaus said he has participated in the caucuses “practically every year” and isn’t bothered by the snow and cold.
“I run a company called Zips, and we sell tow trucks,” he said. “This kind of weather is what we call ‘record sunshine.’”
But with bitterly cold weather and life-threatening wind chills predicted, older Iowans may choose to stay home on caucus night.
Among likely caucusgoers who are 65 and older, Trump leads with 52%. Haley follows with 24%, and DeSantis gets 13%.
Donald Trump leads with independents, but they make up a big chunk of Nikki Haley’s support
Overall, Trump leads with independents.
He gets the support of 37% of independents who plan to caucus with Republicans. Haley follows with 33%. DeSantis gets 14%, and Ramaswamy gets 5%.
But independents and Democrats make up half of Haley’s support going into Caucus Day, the poll shows. That was also true in the Register’s December Iowa Poll.
Among Haley’s supporters, 39% identify as independents and 11% identify as Democrats.
Democrats and independents are allowed to vote for GOP candidates if they register with the Republican Party on caucus night.
“I think she offers intelligence and experience in global policies with her experience in the U.N.,” said Megan Ulrich, a poll respondent and 41-year-old Ogden resident and political independent who plans to caucus for Haley. “And I think that she has the ability to bring our country together and not further divide it.”
Ulrich said she tends to support Republicans over Democrats, but lately she doesn’t feel much affinity to either party. She is only mildly excited to caucus for Haley, though she did feel a stronger commitment to her after watching the last GOP presidential debate.
“I just don’t feel like we have a lot of super inspirational candidates right now,” she said.
Ulrich lives in a rural area and says she’s not worried about the forecast cold, but the snow could be a concern.
“It’s going to be a little bit tough,” she said. “But I think as long as our roads are plowed, I can handle the cold and make it to caucus at our location.”
Lee Potter, a 62-year-old Democrat and poll respondent, said he plans to change his party registration on caucus night to support Haley. Potter, a Cedar Falls resident, said there’s “no action on the Democratic side” this year, and he feels strongly about the GOP candidates.
“As it was when I voted for John McCain in 2000, I want to be able to vote for somebody that I can stomach in the White House,” he said. “And she seems to be the least offensive.”
Iowa Democrats will meet on Jan. 15 to caucus, but they will only conduct party business. They will cast their presidential preferences entirely by mail, with the results to be released March 5.
According to the Iowa Poll, 69% of those who say they are likely to caucus with Republicans on Monday are Republicans, 5% are Democrats, and 23% are independents.
In 2012, the last time the Republicans held a contested caucus when the Democrats did not also have a contested race, entrance polling showed Republicans made up 75% of the electorate, Democrats were 2% and independents made up 23%.
In addition to independents, Haley does best with those who live in the suburbs (31%) and with white women with college degrees (31%).
Donald Trump holds strong, steady lead across all demographics
Trump holds a 28-point lead over Haley, which is slightly smaller than the 32-point lead he held over the rest of the field in December. He continues to hold a commanding lead, but with modest slippage.
“His lead is still impressive,” Selzer said. “The game appears to be for second place, without a real challenger on the horizon.”
As in the December Iowa Poll, Trump leads with every demographic group tested.
Trump does best among those without a college degree (59%), those with an income of less than $50,000 (60%), and white men without a college degree (62%).
Trump’s lead with first-time caucusgoers is 4-to-1 at 56% to Haley’s 14% and DeSantis’ 13%.
Susanne Olson, a 58-year-old Des Moines resident and poll respondent, said she’s been to see Trump speak six or seven times and plans to caucus for him Monday.
“Oh my God, I’m like a groupie for Trump,” she said.
She’s heard Trump at his recent events making explicit appeals to Iowans to show up and caucus for him. Olson said she plans to caucus for the first time because of him.
“Trump has never lied to us one time,” she said. “Everything that man said he was going to do, he did. And I believe he cares about the people, because who would give up his life to try and fix this? You know, he does talk too much. Yeah, his mouth. OK, we understand that. But the man knows what he’s doing. I trust him.”
She said she’s not worried about the weather or navigating the caucus process for the first time.
“Not at all,” she said. “I’ll jump right in there. He did it. He jumped in there for us.”
Thirty-four percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say this will be their first caucus, which is lower than the 40% who said the same in the final Iowa Poll ahead of the 2016 GOP caucus.
Trump’s weakest demographic groups still award him the plurality of the first-choice vote.
That includes white women with a college degree (34%), suburban residents (32%), all those with a college degree (34%) and white men with a college degree (29%).
Donald Trump leads with evangelicals; Ron DeSantis outperforms Nikki Haley
Trump continues to lead with evangelicals, who make up a sizable and influential bloc of likely caucusgoers.
Among evangelicals, Trump leads with 51%, which is unchanged from December. DeSantis gets 22% (down from 26%), Haley gets 12%, which is unchanged from December. And Ramaswamy is at 8% (up from 5%).
Iowa Republicans say this caucus cycle is noteworthy because, for the first time in years, the evangelical community doesn’t appear to have united behind a candidate.
But Iowa’s GOP strategists say DeSantis may be able to peel off enough support to help boost his campaign.
DeSantis has campaigned regularly in northwest Iowa, which is home to a large conservative evangelical population. And he earned the endorsement of influential evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats late last year.
“If that gets up to 30-plus, he’s going to have a great night,” Iowa Republican operative Jimmy Centers previously told the Register. “He’s going to get second place. And he’s going to put a little bit of margin between himself and Ambassador Haley, which is exactly what he needs going forward.”
Majority of likely caucusgoers say they are ‘excited’ for Caucus Day, but others are ‘resigned’
Heading into Caucus Day, a majority of Iowans, or 60%, say they are feeling “excited for their candidate.”
But another 27%, say they’re feeling “neutral” about the outcome and 12% say they are “resigned” to the outcome.
The numbers again show strength for Trump, whose supporters are more likely to say they’re feeling excited. And they show warning signs for Haley, who trails both Trump and DeSantis.
Among Trump’s supporters, 75% say they are feeling excited, 19% feel neutral and just 4% say they are resigned.
A majority of DeSantis’ supporters, or 59%, also say they are feeling excited. Another 22% say they are feeling neutral, and 19% say they are resigned.
But for Haley, just 43% say they are feeling excited. Another 37% say they feel neutral, and 18% say they feel resigned.
Rottinghaus, the DeSantis supporter, said he is among those feeling resigned to the outcome on caucus night.
“Well, it’s kind of an exercise, because Donald Trump is so far ahead and I assume that he’ll be that way at the caucus,” he said. “My goal is to keep somebody else alive. And, you know, it’s a long time until the election. Lots of things can happen, but I still feel in the end, (DeSantis) or Nikki Haley both have a better chance of getting a Republican into office than we imagine, I guess.”
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Jan. 7-12, 2024, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 705 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 4,170 randomly selected voters from the Iowa Secretary of State’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.
Questions based on the sample of 705 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.
